ABP-CVoter UP Vote Share Prediction: Yogi Govt Holds Fort, SP-BSP-Congress Still Distant Second


After almost four years of governance of the Yogi Adityanath-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Uttar Pradesh, ABP News along with C-Voter conducted a survey to check mood of voters,

who will once again exercise their franchise to select the next legislative assembly in the state whose term ends in November 22. 

Currently, Adityanath is the longest serving BJP Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh with journey no less than a roller-coaster ride with appreciable highs and depressing lows. From Gorakhpur’s BRD Medical College oxygen tragedy in 2017, to Covid-19 pandemic, Hathras gangrape case in 2020 and many more, Adityanath has been on Opposition’s radar ever since he was named as the Chief Minister in March 2017 after the BJP came to power in Uttar Pradesh with a massive majority.

As per the survey, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath-led government still appears to be the most preferred choice of voters in the current times. The data which reveals 2021 projections states that BJP may bag as much as 41 per cent vote share in case elections happens today. 

In 2017 Assembly polls, saffron party managed to get a gigantic mandate by securing 41.4 per cent vote share. The data reflects a minor dent in BJP’s vote share compared to previous Assembly elections. 

The ABP-CVoter survey conducted in March 2021 brings bad news for Opposition parties including Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress.

Former UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party may struggle significantly for its dream of returning to power in the populous state. The data shows SP might get 24.4 per cent vote share, which is mere 2.4 per cent gain in its vote share compared to 2017 polls. Akhilesh managed to get 22 per cent vote share in last Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh.

Likewise, Mayawati’s BSP might as well abase itself as survey shows the party might secure just 20.8 per cent vote share, a -1.4 swing compared to last Assembly polls. BSP bagged 22.2 per cent vote share in 2017 polls.

Even the Congress’ performance in the state appears to be unsatisfactory as ABP News survey projects 5.9 per cent vote share for the grand old party, -0.3 per cent swing compared to 2016 elections. Congress managed to bag mere 6.2 per cent vote share in 2017 Assembly elections.

Other parties and independent candidates, the survey suggests, will manage to secure 7.9 per cent vote share in case elections happen today in Uttar Pradesh. In 2017, this vote share was 8.2 per cent. Elections to elect 403-member Legislative Assembly in Uttar Pradesh will be held in month of February to October 2022 to elect 403 members of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly.


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